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About Indestructible Wealth: I’m Jack Gibson. I’m your wealth strategist and I’m here to help you make some money. The Indestructible Wealth Podcast is for young entrepreneurs who want to make, keep and grow wealth to enjoy now, and for years to come.
Episode #84 – Where Is the Bitcoin Bottom?
Podcast Episode Transcripts:
Disclaimer: Transcripts were generated automatically and may contain inaccuracies and errors.
With cryptos plunging right now, let me ask you perhaps the most important question anyone has asked you in 2022: If you could go back in time over the past 10 years and make just one investment with the benefit of hindsight, what trade would you place?
Statistically, there is a right answer here. The trade you should place is a buy order on Bitcoin at the end of the 2015 bear market, or a buy order on Bitcoin at the end of the 2018 bear market.
You see, Bitcoin has this “thing” that it does every few years. It booms. It crashes. Then it bottoms. And it creates the best investment opportunities in the history of financial markets.
January 2015: Bitcoin crashes to $170. A year later, it’s up 170%. Two years later, it’s up more than 500%. Three years later, it’s up more than 10,000%.
December 2018: Bitcoin crashes to $3,000. A year later, it’s up 150%. Two years later, it’s up 1,200%. Three years later, it’s up more than 2,000%.
This is just what Bitcoin does. It booms. It busts. It booms again.
Well, guess what? Bitcoin is back at it. Following the 2020-21 boom, Bitcoin is busting in 2022, and it is creating the same generational buying opportunity as January 2015 and December 2018.
So, leave the time machine at home. You won’t need it. History is repeating itself before our very eyes, and today, you can capitalize on a true potential millionaire-maker opportunity.
Let’s dig deeper.
Realized Price Battle
The current crypto crash will eventually and inevitably end, and lead into a new crypto bull market wherein Bitcoin and certain altcoins will soar thousands of percent in a matter of years.
There’s no question about that. The only questions are when that happens and at what price it happens.
In other words, the new crypto bull market could be just around the corner.
The first chart is the “realized price chart, ” which essentially graphs the average cost basis of all Bitcoin investors in the market. Historically speaking, crypto bear markets have bottomed right around the realized price of Bitcoin at the time. This happened in 2015. It happened in 2018. It briefly happened in 2020.
And it is happening again right now.
The realized price of BTC today is about $23,300. BTC currently trades around $21,000. If history repeats, the big BTC selloff will end around these levels and consolidate around $20,000 for a few months.
That’s point no. 1 on why you should buy the dip in cryptos today. But it is far from the only reason.
So if you’re finding yourself freaking out or thinking, “Oh, my God, let me just sell this and capture at least something,” please don’t do that.
You might look like a hero for a month or two, or even six months. But if you don’t get back in and these markets start taking off again… You could end up really hurting your future self. And that’s the person we’re investing for right now. We’re investing for the future you − the you in 2025… the you in 2029.
By 2025, over a billion people will be using bitcoin. In my opinion, bitcoin will be somewhere around $500,000 per bitcoin.
By the end of the decade – 2029 − you’re going to have 3−3.5 billion people using bitcoin. And bitcoin will be significantly higher than $500,000 at that point.
Do not rob your future-self based on fears you may have today. Just don’t do it. It’s not worth it.
Remember what happened during the last bear market and how we came back dramatically off those lows? Please keep that in mind.
Do not beat yourself up. I know through every bear market, people think, “Oh, I should have sold at $70,000, or $60,000, or $50,000.” I remember thinking that during the last bear market, “Oh, I should have sold at $16,000, $18,000, $15,000, or $12,000.”
But had I done that, I don’t know that I would’ve gotten back in… And then I’d watch bitcoin go to $70,000.
That’s happened again and again to many people since 2010. I know people who bought bitcoin at eight dollars and change and sold it at $100. I know others who bought it at three dollars and change and sold it at $300 and they were like, “Oh, I’m a hero.”
Well, those people would’ve been worth hundreds of millions of dollars today had they just held. And sure, they would’ve had to deal with some outrageous volatility.
Bitcoin, at some points in its early days, went down 88−98%. It was crazy how bitcoin would trade.
But for those who said, “Okay, I’m viewing this almost like a zero-coupon bond. I buy it and I’ll look at it in five years,” or, “I’ll buy it and I’ll look at it in 10 years…” those people made life-changing money. And I believe the same will be true today.
This is my message I’ve continued with ever since 2016.
Bitcoin is volatile. But do not confuse the volatility with the terminal value of the asset. Because the terminal value of the asset − where the asset’s going to go over time – is significantly higher than where it is today.
And again, I talk about bitcoin because as bitcoin goes, generally so goes the whole space.
That might be a little bit different this time if the Ethereum merge happens this year. It might be the merge that brings us out of this bear market, but that remains to be seen.
Just remember, I warned you about it ahead of time. Don’t panic. If you’ve got the ability to take advantage of it and buy more bitcoin and more Ethereum, do so. If you don’t, then just turn off the computer and go do something else instead.
Our job here is just going to be to navigate through this bear period in a way that we come out of this bear market richer, not poorer.
The people who dumped their bitcoin at $2,900−4,000 back during the last bear market came out of the bear market poorer.
If you say, “Oh, my gosh, I’m never going to do this again. I’m definitely going to take profits,” fair enough. But take profits during a bull market. Don’t sell in a bear market. You sell in a bull market. You sell when sentiment is high and when everybody thinks everything’s going up. You don’t sell when everybody thinks everything’s going down. It’s the worst time in the world to sell. Even though over the short term you might look like a genius, over the longer term you won’t.
The Final Word
I really don’t know how to better say this: Bitcoin looks really good here.
The digital token has a tendency to undergo hyperbolic boom-bust-boom cycles. Importantly, each big bust eventually leads to a bigger boom. That critical point at which the bust becomes a boom has historically provided the best investment opportunities of the century.
We’re either at or very close to that point right now in the current boom-bust-boom cycle.
We had the big boom in 2020-21. We’ve had a big bust in 2022. And by 2023, it looks very likely that we’ll enter into a new boom.
The investment implication? Well, given the four charts I showed you above, I think it’s pretty clear that we should be buying the dip in BTC right now, at current levels, before it soars in the next boom.