Episode #84 – Where Is the Bitcoin Bottom?

 

Tune in for an honest review of how I’m managing my crypto investments and a look back at the boom-and-bust history of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general (Hint: It’s a wild ride).

My book, Building Indestructible Wealth: The Six Figure Earners Guide to a Multimillion-Dollar Portfolio,  just launched. Get your print and audiobook copies and a few other timely insights into what to invest in right now at this link: https://bit.ly/3xjGFQ7

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Where Is the Bitcoin Bottom?

This day is a crazy day here at the Gibson house. My wife is away to Washington, DC as a chaperone for my oldest son, John, on his eighth-grade field trip. I have been in charge of everything, including the on-demand Uber driver. I miss my wife because I love her, she is amazing, and I love being around her, but I miss her extra special on a day like this.

Tyler, my youngest, had a 7:00 AM football camp. How are they doing that to these kids? There is no way I would be playing football if I had to do that going into seventh grade. That was 7:00 AM, carpooling a bunch of boys over. He had private baseball pitching coaching lessons at 10:30. He had basketball from 2:00 to 4:00. I dropped him off at baseball practice.

I’m going to knock this episode out for you, and I’m going to go back to pick him up and throw some water balloons at him. Apparently, the coach has a scheme device where he is setting up a parent meeting right at the end of practice. It is a disguise for us to grab water balloons and peg these little fuckers, maybe leave some wails. I don’t know. That could happen from a couple of us, competitive dads. I feel it’s a possibility.

I wish the kids luck. I hope they survive. From there, we are driving to Chicago to meet up with my wife and my oldest, and stay the night there. We are flying out to Mexico for a vacation at the Riviera Maya first thing at 7:00 AM. We are running around like crazy, but I got to stay consistent in getting this valuable content out to you guys.

Before we do that, I wanted to go to the mailbag. A couple of messages came in. Superfan Mary Kay Wyatt sent me an incredible YETI cooler and a thank you note. I appreciate you so much. She said, “One thing you don’t get enough credit for is how hilarious you are. Your show has forced us to pull over on road trips because we are laughing too hard. Always in forever thankful.”

She is right about being fucking funny, to be honest. I had probably been a bit serious on the show lately. I’m going to try to go back to my roots when I first got going with this. It was carefree and a little bit more humor involved that I feel. We are going to get back to that. I’m relaunching the show in several weeks. I’m going to come in with three episodes per week like I originally started and got away from.

It is going to be very structured and consistent. I know that I’m missing consistency. Every episode will be Monday, Wednesday, and Friday released at 8:00 AM Eastern standard time. Monday is always going to be Mindset Monday, where I’m going to talk about general entrepreneurial and smart money management investing mindsets.

Wednesday is going to be a special guest. I’m going to open up the Rolodex and the networking. I’m going to start pulling in even more incredible guests to deliver their stories and different insights. Friday is going to be all about the market. We are going to talk about specific actionable investments in stocks, crypto, and real estate. Whole life insurance is not a lot to talk about on that, but all the different plays and pre-IPOs. I’m going to give you guys specific actionable investments on Fridays.

That is how the show is going to look. My book is selling well. I had expectations of cranking it and killing it, but it is ramping up. Every day, it seems like getting more sales, but this was a gentleman who sent me a message. He said, “I read your book. It was awesome. I love it.” If you guys haven’t gotten my book yet, go to MyIndestructibleWealth.com and click on Get Jack’s Books, or you can go on my Instagram bio page, click the link and it will take you right there as well. It’s only priced at $4.95.

It’s a digital copy. You can download it instantaneously. It’s 180 pages of all the last 25 years of experience in entrepreneurialism and investing. You guys have spent more money on a fricking coffee. Come on, throw me a bone and go pick up my book. If nothing else to say, “I support you. I thank you for all the content that you have been putting out for free,” over 90 episodes of my best thoughts and investment strategies.

Let’s dive into Bitcoin. I’m not going to talk for a long time because I got to get out of here and head to Chicago. However, I did feel it would be important with what is going on. Crypto is plunging right now. I want to ask you perhaps the most important question that anyone has asked you about your future finances in the year 2022. If you could go back in time over the past ten years and make just one investment with the benefit of hindsight, what trade would you place?

I think you guys know where I’m going with this, but let’s break this down. Statistically, there is a right answer here. The trade you should place is a buy order on Bitcoin at the end of the 2015 bear market or a buy order on Bitcoin at the end of the 2018 bear market. You see, Bitcoin has this thing about it that it does every few years. It booms and it crashes. It bottoms and it creates the best investment opportunities in the history of financial markets.

Every few years, Bitcoin booms, crashes, and creates the best investment opportunity in history. Click To Tweet

Let’s take a look. In January 2015, Bitcoin crashed to $170. A year later, it’s up 170%. Two years later, it’s up more than 500%. Three years later, it’s up more than 10,000%. In December 2018, Bitcoin crashed to $3,000. A year later, it’s up 150%. Two years later, 1,200%. Three years later, it’s up more than 2,000%. This is what Bitcoin does. It booms, it bust and it booms again.

I’m sure you’re clear. Bitcoin is back at it. Bitcoin is busting in 2022. It’s creating the same generational buy-an opportunity as January 2015 and December 2018. Leave your flux capacitor, if you guys don’t know, that’s from Back to the Future and it powers the DeLorean time machine. Leave that at home. You won’t need it. History is repeating itself and now, you can capitalize on a true potential millionaire-maker opportunity. If you buy a few thousand, it is not a millionaire opportunity because it’s not going to go up that much.

However, let’s dig a little bit deeper. The current crypto crash will eventually and inevitably end. It will lead to a new crypto bull market where Bitcoin and certain altcoins will soar thousands of percent in a matter of years. There is no question about that. The only questions are when that happens and at what price it happens. In other words, the new crypto bull market could be around the corner.

There is a chart. It is called the realized price chart. It graphs the average cost basis of all Bitcoin investors in the market. What is the average cost that they are in to acquire the Bitcoin that they currently hold? Historically speaking, crypto bear markets have bottomed right around the realized price of Bitcoin at that time. This is what happened in 2015 and 2018. It briefly happened in the COVID-induced crash of 2020. It is happening right now.

 

The realized price of BTC now is $23,300, and Bitcoin trades at around $21,000. If history repeats, the big Bitcoin selloff will end around these levels. It will consolidate around $20,000, probably for a few months. This is the main point number one on why you should buy the dip in cryptos now. Could it go down further? Absolutely, it could go down further from where it is at. It looks like the bottom-end support level is $11,000. Will we get there? It is going to take another probably pretty major and negative announcement, something along the lines of what Celsius did, the online trading platform, where they locked everything down and they won’t let you withdraw. That is pretty insane. That is further causing the pain that we are experiencing in crypto.

If you find yourself freaking out or thinking, “Let me sell this and capture at least something.” Please do not do that. You might look like a hero for a month or two or even six months, but if you don’t get back in and these markets start taking off again, you never know when they’re going to take off, it can take off in a hurry, you miss that because you sold and tried to time it. You could end up hurting your future self, and that is the person that we are talking to on this show. That is the reason that we are investing right now. We are investing for the future you in 2025 and 2029.

Here is the second major point. Beyond the charts and where the numbers tell us the bottom is, by 2025, over a billion people on the planet will be using Bitcoin. From all the research that I have done and it has been extensive, in my opinion, Bitcoin will be somewhere around $500,000 per Bitcoin in that year. By the end of the decade 2029, you are going to have 3 to 3.5 billion people using Bitcoin, and it will be significantly higher than $500,000 at that point.

Do not rob your future self-based on fears that you may have now. Do not do it. It is not worth it. Remember what happened during the last bear market. We came dramatically back off those lows. Keep that in mind. What is important is you don’t beat yourself up. Every time there is a bear market, people have said or thought, “I should have sold at $70,000 or $60,000 to $50,000.”

I got greedy, but you don’t have a crystal ball, and you don’t know. I thought it was possible, and a lot of people thought it was possible that Bitcoin was going well over $100,000 to $125,000 in 2022. It’s probably unlikely. Probably in 2022, it won’t go back to its all-time high of $69,000, but we know it is inevitable that it will.

Here is what you got to be thinking. Number one, the charge shows us that this is the typical historical bottom. Number two, we know that adoption is accelerating at a furious pace. More people are adding accounts and utilizing crypto. That part of it is not slowing down. What has happened again and again to many people since 2010 is that they bought in at $8 and changed and sold it at $100. There are others who bought it at $3 and sold it at $300. They were like, “I’m a hero.”

Those people would have been worth hundreds of millions of dollars now if they just held. They would have had to deal with some outrageous volatility. There were days when Bitcoin went down 92%. That’s insanity. For those who said, “I’m viewing this almost like a zero coupon bond, I buy it and I will look at it in five years. I will buy it and I will look at it in ten years.” Those people made life-changing money. I believe the same thing will be true now.

This is the message that I’ll keep echoing throughout the show this is the truth, and Bitcoin is volatile. This is why I say, “Don’t invest more than 10%.” If you are aggressive with multiple streams of income coming in, you could go up to 20% of your total investible dollars. I’m stuck with that, personally. The crypto crash hurt, but for instance, I believe I had around 15% of my total investible dollars into crypto. It dropped more than half. What does that mean? I lost about 7.5% to 8% of my total net worth. That is not anything that I can recover from. It doesn’t make me lose sleep at night. It sets me up for an incredible wealth-generating opportunity when the crypto goes parabolic.

Bitcoin is volatile. Don't invest more than 10% of your investible dollars. Click To Tweet

I talk about Bitcoin because as Bitcoin goes, generally, so goes the entire crypto network. This could be a little different this time if the Ethereum 2.0 merge happens in 2022. It’s going to burn 90% of this new supply of Ethereum that is coming into the market right now. That is going to be a massive supply shock that I have talked about in previous episodes. If you want to get more clarity on that eventuality in the Ethereum space, search back a few episodes I hit on that. That merger could bring us out of the bear market, but that remains to be seen. It is going to get punted and probably, the merge won’t happen until 2023.

Remember, I warned you about it ahead of time. This is a volatile asset. Don’t panic. If you got the ability to take advantage of it and buy more Bitcoin and more Ethereum, do so. I am. If you don’t, turn off your computer, your notifications from Coinbase or wherever else, and go do something else instead. Hang out with your family, go golfing, go get out on a boat, get on the lake, go for a hike, and do whatever you love to do and fucking forget about it.

The best people and the best investors that are going to be scoring huge on crypto over the next decade probably are the ones that bought it and died. It is in their accounts. They are going to do their best. The people who dumped their Bitcoin back at $2,900 to $4,000 during the last market crash came out of the bear market poorer.

If you say, “I’m never going to do this again. I’m going to take profits,” fair enough. Take profits during a bull market and sell into strength. Don’t sell in a bear market. You sell into a bull market. You sell when the sentiment is high and when everybody thinks everything is going up. You don’t sell when everybody thinks everything is going down. It’s the worst time in the world to sell. Even though over the short term, you may look like a genius. Over the longer term, you likely will not.

 

You guys got the picture. I hope this helps you calm down, those who are in the crypto market. When I speak about Bitcoin, I’m generally speaking about the entire crypto market. As Bitcoin goes, the rest of the market goes too. The altcoins, which are everything but Bitcoin, typically, when Bitcoin drops, they drop much faster. We have seen that. When Bitcoin goes up, the altcoin shoots up like a slingshot. It rises much faster percentage-wise than Bitcoin does. This is what we got to be looking for.

I’m getting some Bitcoin Ethereum, and I’m also adding in my favorite alts, which are on the buyer’s guide that you guys can purchase when you get my book. When you go to the book and you purchase that, you can get my stock and crypto guides. There is probably $20,000 to $30,000 worth of research that I have paid for, so you don’t have to, and get all those picks that are on that guide. The value is strong. It is not a gimmick to get you to spend more money. It is a real value-add document and research that I have poured over for months.

I got tons of income coming in. I don’t need to sell you a $30 to $60 guide to put food on the table. I got to charge something because if it’s free, you will not value it. I’m heading out the door. I am going to blow some kids up with some water balloons. Wish me luck. I hope I come out of this okay. Let’s pray for these little kids. They don’t know what’s about to hit them.

 

Important Links

• Instagram – Indestructible Wealth
• Celsius
• TWO Major Announcements Say: It’s Time To Buy More Bitcoin AND Ethereum – Past Episode
• https://Bit.ly/3xjGFQ7
• MyIndestructibleWealth.com